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The Federal Reserve Roller Coaster

By Cade Peterson
Seal of the United States Federal Reserve Board
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Will the fed cut rates in 2024? This is a question I’m hearing frequently since the last rate meeting in December. The stock market rallied as we closed out 2023 due to the fed hinting at significantly cutting rates in 2024. The stock market usually reacts in a positive way when the fed is planning to cut interest rates. This is due to the fact that lower rates mean lower returns with CDs and money markets and also because lower borrowing costs means more profitability for businesses. Consumers tend to look toward the stock market when we are in a low-rate environment to try to get higher returns, hence the reason for the rally after the fed’s comments. The market is pricing in potential rate cuts which looks good on paper but could come with more volatility down the road.

1980s Hyperinflation

The fed is walking a fine line with the way they have handled the recent inflation struggles. Mass spending and printing of money created a sharp increase in prices and many Americans have felt the consequences. I can’t help but think of the crazy inflation figures in the 1970s and 80s with the path we are on. In 1973, there was an oil price shock leading to higher costs for businesses. When costs go up, prices tend to follow. The oil price shock created a wage-price spiral. The higher prices lead to demands for higher wages, similar to what we are seeing now. The inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, rose to as high at 14% in 1980. As a friendly reminder, we were up to over 9% at the peak in 2022. In attempt to combat inflation of 14% year-over-year, the fed jacked up interest rates. Many of you may remember or might have experienced mortgage rates around 15%. We think the 7% rate now is high but that’s nothing compared to the numbers in the 1980s. A recession closely followed the hyperinflation, which is ultimately why economists have been calling for a recession. The chart below shows the inflation spike in the 80s as well as the spike over the last couple of years. 

As shown, the spike in the 70s and 80s was substantial. The prices of food and gas were through the roof. It doesn’t seem like a big deal looking at lines on a chart, but this made getting by very difficult for most Americans. We are seeing several similarities to that spike today. It is hard for Americans to pay their bills and provide for their families. Young adults have a tough row to hoe. Many have no choice but to live with their parents because they can’t afford a $3,000 month mortgage along with car payments, insurance, food, gas, etc. It all…

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CrazyDownCorona HPFTrl RP#7©DustinOronaPhoto
©Dustin Orona Photography

One of the important tools the racing industry has come to appreciate is the role the mare plays in the production of her foals. While visiting with successful breeders, you often hear a common theme: the mare contributes more than 50% to the development of the foal. This is through both genetic and environmental factors. You hear varying estimates of the mare’s contribution to the development of the foal, and those estimates range from 60% to some who boldly say, “Give the mare 100% of the credit.” The AQHA Hall of Fame breeder Hank Wiescamp put it this way: “I’ll give the mare 70 to 80% credit if she is a good producer, and if she is a poor one, I’ll give her 100% credit. I don’t care what kind of a stud you have—if you don’t have a producing mare, you are kidding yourself.”

The racing industry has set up criteria that can be used to evaluate the success of a mare as a producer. It starts simply with how many starters she has and how many of those starters have won a race. Then, we look at how many of these runners have earned their Register of Merit—especially through speed indexes, denoting the kind of speed she produces. The next area that truly shows the value of a mare comes as a stakes producer, with the number of stakes winners, stakes-placed runners, and stakes qualifiers she sends to the track. Then we look at the stakes races they have been successful in, not only by the money earned, but also by the level of races won through graded stakes events. The last category is the championships her foals have earned, and this is probably the most difficult to achieve on this list of standards.

Crazy Down Corona has accomplished a number of these goals in her breeding career that set her up as a unique producer. It came about in 2022, when she became the first mare to be the dam of an All American Futurity-G1 winner and a Champion of Champions-G1 winner in the same year. Those two winners made her the dam of two Champions that year. This outstanding year earned her owners, Steve Holt and Jeff Jones, the Champion Owners title. The trainer for these two horses was Heath Taylor, the AQHA Blane Schvaneveldt Champion Trainer. That same year, she was named an AQHA Dam of Distinction, and she capped the year off as the Speedhorse Broodmare of the Year.

Empressum and Hes Judgeandjury were the two foals that allowed her to achieve these goals. Empressum was the 2022 World Champion, Champion Gelding, Champion Aged Gelding, and the winner of the 2022 Champion of Champions-G1. He also won the Vessels Maturity-G1 and the Go Man Go Handicap-G1. He made six starts that year, with four wins and two seconds, earning $587,896. Hes Judgeandjury was the 2022 Champion Two Year Old, Champion Two-Year-Old Gelding, and the winner of the 2022 All American Futurity-G1. He also qualified for the Ruidoso Futurity-G1, finishing fifth, and the Rainbow Futurity-G1, where he placed third. He then went on to qualify for the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity-G1, finishing third. He was the leading money earner for the year, with…

SquawH_HelenMichaelisAQHASecretary_CourtseyJLHankinasepia-gig'd
©Courtesy J.L. Harkins

Pedigree research, and the history that accompanies those pedigrees, is a never-ending odyssey. The researcher uncovers some information and reports it, which often leads to further discoveries. This was the case with a phone call from J. L. Hankins, the son of J. O. Hankins. He reached out after reading a story I had written about Queen H, one of his father’s famous mares.

J. L. found our story very interesting, but he wanted to add to it. He asked me to focus on Squaw H, a daughter of Queen H, and her race record. He strongly felt that, due to a lack of official records, this mare was not receiving full credit for her long and illustrious racing career. So, he sent me some information about his father and his famous mare, along with several news articles, in hopes that we could fill in some gaps.

J. O. Hankins was the brother of Jess Hankins and Lowell Hankins. They were ranchers in Rocksprings, Texas. King P-234, owned by Jess Hankins, is considered by many to be the “cornerstone of the industry” as a sire of horses known for their exceptional performance, speed, and agility in the arena. However, King P-234’s offspring have also proven to be a source of speed on the racetrack. He sired 12 racing ROM (Register of Merit) earners. Some of his notable runners include Hank H, who was the broodmare sire of Tonto Bars Hank—the 1960 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, the 1961 Champion Three-Year-Old Colt, and the winner of the 1960 All American Futurity-G1. Hank H was a full brother to Squaw H.

Horses bred by J. O. Hankins earned a total of 2,101 AQHA performance points, with 38 earning a Performance Register of Merit (ROM), 12 becoming AQHA Champions, and seven receiving Superior Awards in the arena. He was also a million-dollar breeder of racehorses, whose runners earned a total of $1,604,327. Of 181 starters, 101 were race winners, 98 earned a Racing ROM, 14 were…

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The information presented in this article is the opinion of Peterson Wealth and does not reflect the view of any other person or entity. The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Peterson Wealth is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

I graduated with my bachelor’s degree in finance. During my time in college, I was discouraged because I was not being taught the skills that would help me become a successful financial advisor. It often felt like I was chasing something that never materialized. For decades, earning a college degree has been seen as a prestigious achievement. Recently, however, that perception has started to shift. Many people grew up believing that you have to attend college to be successful. Is that still true? Do high-end jobs still require a college degree? 

The Role of 529 Plans

One of the most common financial tools for funding education is the 529 plan. I often discuss what type of investment account someone should set up for their kids or grandkids. For those that encourage college education, a 529 plan is the best route. The money invested grows and is taken out tax-free as long as it is used for higher education. It could be for college, trade school, beauty school, vet school, etc. The more I have this conversation, the more I realize how uncertain people are about whether college will be worth it for their children or grandchildren. The good news about a 529 is that if the account beneficiary elects to not attend some form of higher education, the balance can be transferred to someone else who plans to attend school. There is also a newer rule where a 529 can be transferred to a Roth IRA when following certain limitations. 

There are compelling arguments both for helping children with college expenses and for encouraging them to pay their own way. College is one of the most significant financial commitments one can make. Contributing to a child’s college education can significantly improve their future opportunities. Investing just $1,000 at the time of birth in the S&P 500 and adding $100 a month until the child turns 18 can grow to an estimated $66,000 by the time they are ready to attend college (based on average historical returns). For some schools, that would cover all four years. For others, it may only cover one year. Someone entering adulthood without student loans is a major advantage to them. 

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