Will the fed cut rates in 2024? This is a question I’m hearing frequently since the last rate meeting in December. The stock market rallied as we closed out 2023 due to the fed hinting at significantly cutting rates in 2024. The stock market usually reacts in a positive way when the fed is planning to cut interest rates. This is due to the fact that lower rates mean lower returns with CDs and money markets and also because lower borrowing costs means more profitability for businesses. Consumers tend to look toward the stock market when we are in a low-rate environment to try to get higher returns, hence the reason for the rally after the fed’s comments. The market is pricing in potential rate cuts which looks good on paper but could come with more volatility down the road.
1980s Hyperinflation
The fed is walking a fine line with the way they have handled the recent inflation struggles. Mass spending and printing of money created a sharp increase in prices and many Americans have felt the consequences. I can’t help but think of the crazy inflation figures in the 1970s and 80s with the path we are on. In 1973, there was an oil price shock leading to higher costs for businesses. When costs go up, prices tend to follow. The oil price shock created a wage-price spiral. The higher prices lead to demands for higher wages, similar to what we are seeing now. The inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, rose to as high at 14% in 1980. As a friendly reminder, we were up to over 9% at the peak in 2022. In attempt to combat inflation of 14% year-over-year, the fed jacked up interest rates. Many of you may remember or might have experienced mortgage rates around 15%. We think the 7% rate now is high but that’s nothing compared to the numbers in the 1980s. A recession closely followed the hyperinflation, which is ultimately why economists have been calling for a recession. The chart below shows the inflation spike in the 80s as well as the spike over the last couple of years.
As shown, the spike in the 70s and 80s was substantial. The prices of food and gas were through the roof. It doesn’t seem like a big deal looking at lines on a chart, but this made getting by very difficult for most Americans. We are seeing several similarities to that spike today. It is hard for Americans to pay their bills and provide for their families. Young adults have a tough row to hoe. Many have no choice but to live with their parents because they can’t afford a $3,000 month mortgage along with car payments, insurance, food, gas, etc. It all…