As the weather continues to warm, the
stock market has experienced its own heat wave in the form of rising volatility. Market uncertainty has increased as investors have recently begun shifting out of large cap technology companies and into a broad variety of different sectors and styles, including small cap companies. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks has jumped over 11% since early July, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has declined 7%. With the unpredictable political environment, how can investors maintain perspective on upcoming events?
Recently, President Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed his VP, Kamala Harris. Former President Trump was nearly assassinated at a rally in Pennsylvania. How significant of a role will these recent political events play in the market performance for the remainder of the year?
Recent Pullbacks
As I have mentioned before, volatility has historically increased leading up to November of an election year. Even though returns in an election year are overwhelmingly positive, investors tend to get concerned with the changes a presidential election could bring. It is important to remember that pullbacks happen every year. If the market finished a year up 10%, it is very likely that there were two or three significant pullbacks throughout the year. These are normal.
I like this chart because it really illustrates the volatility of any given year. The red dots show the intra-year pullbacks of the S&P 500 during any given year.
In 2008, the market was down 48% at one point in time but finished the year down 37%. In 2020 when the pandemic shocked the market, it was down a whopping 34% at one point in the year. Investors that stayed in the boat were very happy in 2020 because the market finished the year up 18%. The accompanying chart shows the largest decline this year has only been 5%. This is quite low by historical standards, especially when compared to the strong year-to-date gains by the S&P 500 (15%) and Nasdaq (16%). Most years have experienced far more significant intra-year pullbacks, yet still…