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Is A Recession On The Horizon?

By Cade Peterson
USD dollar banknote is torn with recession wording on red background for United of America risk of great economic depression crisis concept.
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The information presented in this newsletter is the opinion of Peterson Wealth and does not reflect the view of any other person or entity. The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Peterson Wealth is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

As market volatility has picked up in recent weeks, many people have started worrying about a potential recession. Since 2008, the word “recession” has carried a strong sense of fear. Let’s break it down simply. A recession is a slowdown in the economy. At its core, that’s what it is. It usually brings market volatility and that is what really makes people nervous. It is important to note that not all recessions are the same. The recession in 2008, commonly referred to as the Great Recession, was an anomaly. If we enter a recession in 2025, I do not anticipate it being nearly as significant as the recession in 2008.

What is a recession?

As mentioned, a recession is a slowdown in the economy. Expanding on that, it is consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a rise in unemployment, and a decrease in consumer spending. The last time we had a recession was in 2020. Most people do not remember because it was so short-lived. A recession is also unique because the data is backward-looking. We could be in a recession right now and we would not know it until certain data came out for the previous quarter. The Great Recession lasted for 18 months, which is the longest duration of a recession in recent history. It is more common for a recession to last around 8-10 months.

Inflation Worries

For those of you keeping up with the news, you have been well-informed on tariffs. I believe the tariff talk is temporary. Eventually, deals will be made, and everything will go back to normal, in my opinion. The inflation numbers carry more significance to me than tariffs. 

President Trump imposing tariffs is unfamiliar to most Americans, which causes the volatility in the market. Inflation numbers are reported often, and investors are used to seeing them. 

An inflation report came out during the AQHA Convention in Las Vegas showing that consumer prices increased 2.5% in February from a year earlier. This number was a little higher than expected. One potential concern is that this could prompt the Fed to change its stance on interest rates for 2025. Goldman Sachs economists are forecasting more interest rate cuts this year. However, if inflation stays hotter than expected and the Fed has to increase rates, I anticipate significant volatility in the equity market.

Market Correction

A correction in the market is a drop of 10% from the previous high. The Nasdaq has already experienced a correction in 2025. The S&P is approaching one. A 10% correction happens once a year on average. The point is corrections are normal. Many people get fixated on the highest value of their accounts. It is not realistic for account balances to continue to climb every single year. Eventually, prices will fall back down to earth, and returns will average out. 

The chart (below) shows that since World War II, the market falls 14% during the average correction. The average recovery takes…

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CrazyDownCorona HPFTrl RP#7©DustinOronaPhoto
©Dustin Orona Photography

One of the important tools the racing industry has come to appreciate is the role the mare plays in the production of her foals. While visiting with successful breeders, you often hear a common theme: the mare contributes more than 50% to the development of the foal. This is through both genetic and environmental factors. You hear varying estimates of the mare’s contribution to the development of the foal, and those estimates range from 60% to some who boldly say, “Give the mare 100% of the credit.” The AQHA Hall of Fame breeder Hank Wiescamp put it this way: “I’ll give the mare 70 to 80% credit if she is a good producer, and if she is a poor one, I’ll give her 100% credit. I don’t care what kind of a stud you have—if you don’t have a producing mare, you are kidding yourself.”

The racing industry has set up criteria that can be used to evaluate the success of a mare as a producer. It starts simply with how many starters she has and how many of those starters have won a race. Then, we look at how many of these runners have earned their Register of Merit—especially through speed indexes, denoting the kind of speed she produces. The next area that truly shows the value of a mare comes as a stakes producer, with the number of stakes winners, stakes-placed runners, and stakes qualifiers she sends to the track. Then we look at the stakes races they have been successful in, not only by the money earned, but also by the level of races won through graded stakes events. The last category is the championships her foals have earned, and this is probably the most difficult to achieve on this list of standards.

Crazy Down Corona has accomplished a number of these goals in her breeding career that set her up as a unique producer. It came about in 2022, when she became the first mare to be the dam of an All American Futurity-G1 winner and a Champion of Champions-G1 winner in the same year. Those two winners made her the dam of two Champions that year. This outstanding year earned her owners, Steve Holt and Jeff Jones, the Champion Owners title. The trainer for these two horses was Heath Taylor, the AQHA Blane Schvaneveldt Champion Trainer. That same year, she was named an AQHA Dam of Distinction, and she capped the year off as the Speedhorse Broodmare of the Year.

Empressum and Hes Judgeandjury were the two foals that allowed her to achieve these goals. Empressum was the 2022 World Champion, Champion Gelding, Champion Aged Gelding, and the winner of the 2022 Champion of Champions-G1. He also won the Vessels Maturity-G1 and the Go Man Go Handicap-G1. He made six starts that year, with four wins and two seconds, earning $587,896. Hes Judgeandjury was the 2022 Champion Two Year Old, Champion Two-Year-Old Gelding, and the winner of the 2022 All American Futurity-G1. He also qualified for the Ruidoso Futurity-G1, finishing fifth, and the Rainbow Futurity-G1, where he placed third. He then went on to qualify for the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity-G1, finishing third. He was the leading money earner for the year, with…

SquawH_HelenMichaelisAQHASecretary_CourtseyJLHankinasepia-gig'd
©Courtesy J.L. Harkins

Pedigree research, and the history that accompanies those pedigrees, is a never-ending odyssey. The researcher uncovers some information and reports it, which often leads to further discoveries. This was the case with a phone call from J. L. Hankins, the son of J. O. Hankins. He reached out after reading a story I had written about Queen H, one of his father’s famous mares.

J. L. found our story very interesting, but he wanted to add to it. He asked me to focus on Squaw H, a daughter of Queen H, and her race record. He strongly felt that, due to a lack of official records, this mare was not receiving full credit for her long and illustrious racing career. So, he sent me some information about his father and his famous mare, along with several news articles, in hopes that we could fill in some gaps.

J. O. Hankins was the brother of Jess Hankins and Lowell Hankins. They were ranchers in Rocksprings, Texas. King P-234, owned by Jess Hankins, is considered by many to be the “cornerstone of the industry” as a sire of horses known for their exceptional performance, speed, and agility in the arena. However, King P-234’s offspring have also proven to be a source of speed on the racetrack. He sired 12 racing ROM (Register of Merit) earners. Some of his notable runners include Hank H, who was the broodmare sire of Tonto Bars Hank—the 1960 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, the 1961 Champion Three-Year-Old Colt, and the winner of the 1960 All American Futurity-G1. Hank H was a full brother to Squaw H.

Horses bred by J. O. Hankins earned a total of 2,101 AQHA performance points, with 38 earning a Performance Register of Merit (ROM), 12 becoming AQHA Champions, and seven receiving Superior Awards in the arena. He was also a million-dollar breeder of racehorses, whose runners earned a total of $1,604,327. Of 181 starters, 101 were race winners, 98 earned a Racing ROM, 14 were…

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The information presented in this article is the opinion of Peterson Wealth and does not reflect the view of any other person or entity. The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Peterson Wealth is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

I graduated with my bachelor’s degree in finance. During my time in college, I was discouraged because I was not being taught the skills that would help me become a successful financial advisor. It often felt like I was chasing something that never materialized. For decades, earning a college degree has been seen as a prestigious achievement. Recently, however, that perception has started to shift. Many people grew up believing that you have to attend college to be successful. Is that still true? Do high-end jobs still require a college degree? 

The Role of 529 Plans

One of the most common financial tools for funding education is the 529 plan. I often discuss what type of investment account someone should set up for their kids or grandkids. For those that encourage college education, a 529 plan is the best route. The money invested grows and is taken out tax-free as long as it is used for higher education. It could be for college, trade school, beauty school, vet school, etc. The more I have this conversation, the more I realize how uncertain people are about whether college will be worth it for their children or grandchildren. The good news about a 529 is that if the account beneficiary elects to not attend some form of higher education, the balance can be transferred to someone else who plans to attend school. There is also a newer rule where a 529 can be transferred to a Roth IRA when following certain limitations. 

There are compelling arguments both for helping children with college expenses and for encouraging them to pay their own way. College is one of the most significant financial commitments one can make. Contributing to a child’s college education can significantly improve their future opportunities. Investing just $1,000 at the time of birth in the S&P 500 and adding $100 a month until the child turns 18 can grow to an estimated $66,000 by the time they are ready to attend college (based on average historical returns). For some schools, that would cover all four years. For others, it may only cover one year. Someone entering adulthood without student loans is a major advantage to them. 

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