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As market volatility has picked up in recent weeks, many people have started worrying about a potential recession. Since 2008, the word “recession” has carried a strong sense of fear. Let’s break it down simply. A recession is a slowdown in the economy. At its core, that’s what it is. It usually brings market volatility and that is what really makes people nervous. It is important to note that not all recessions are the same. The recession in 2008, commonly referred to as the Great Recession, was an anomaly. If we enter a recession in 2025, I do not anticipate it being nearly as significant as the recession in 2008.
What is a recession?
As mentioned, a recession is a slowdown in the economy. Expanding on that, it is consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a rise in unemployment, and a decrease in consumer spending. The last time we had a recession was in 2020. Most people do not remember because it was so short-lived. A recession is also unique because the data is backward-looking. We could be in a recession right now and we would not know it until certain data came out for the previous quarter. The Great Recession lasted for 18 months, which is the longest duration of a recession in recent history. It is more common for a recession to last around 8-10 months.
Inflation Worries
For those of you keeping up with the news, you have been well-informed on tariffs. I believe the tariff talk is temporary. Eventually, deals will be made, and everything will go back to normal, in my opinion. The inflation numbers carry more significance to me than tariffs.
President Trump imposing tariffs is unfamiliar to most Americans, which causes the volatility in the market. Inflation numbers are reported often, and investors are used to seeing them.
An inflation report came out during the AQHA Convention in Las Vegas showing that consumer prices increased 2.5% in February from a year earlier. This number was a little higher than expected. One potential concern is that this could prompt the Fed to change its stance on interest rates for 2025. Goldman Sachs economists are forecasting more interest rate cuts this year. However, if inflation stays hotter than expected and the Fed has to increase rates, I anticipate significant volatility in the equity market.
Market Correction
A correction in the market is a drop of 10% from the previous high. The Nasdaq has already experienced a correction in 2025. The S&P is approaching one. A 10% correction happens once a year on average. The point is corrections are normal. Many people get fixated on the highest value of their accounts. It is not realistic for account balances to continue to climb every single year. Eventually, prices will fall back down to earth, and returns will average out.
The chart (below) shows that since World War II, the market falls 14% during the average correction. The average recovery takes…