After an historically strong start to the year, markets have now pulled back 2.5% to begin the second quarter. The reason for the pullback is the concerns around the geopolitical tensions in the middle east. There are also still some inflation concerns along with corporate earnings. In times of market stress, it’s important for investors to maintain perspective on the critical issues and not overreact to headlines. Remember, market corrections of 10% happen multiple times a year on average.
First and foremost, tensions escalated in the Middle East due to an attack by Iran on Israel, the first time a direct strike has occurred between the two nations. In the world we live in today, there is a significant number of social media warriors. People are protesting and rallying for one side or the other. College campuses have been shut down due to protests and rallies. Investors see this animosity and it makes them nervous, causing a pullback.
The attack involved hundreds of drones and missiles launched from Iran and appears to have been designed to allow ample time for Israel and its allies to deploy countermeasures, resulting in minimal damage. The hope is that the nations will be able to resolve the conflict before there are any more casualties.
For investors, the question becomes, how is this going to impact my retirement dollars? In the chart we are looking at the S&P 500 performance 3 months, 6 months and 1 year after the listed events. The catastrophe of 9/11 sticks out. After 1 year, the S&P 500 was still down 17%. After all of the other events, the market was positive, minus Russia invading Ukraine.
Geopolitical headlines can be alarming to investors since they are unlike the typical flow of business and market news. These events are difficult to analyze and their outcomes are challenging to predict since they depend on the actions of individuals and groups with complex histories and motivations.
However, history shows that while geopolitics can impact markets, the effects are typically short-lived. Some events such as 9/11, changed the world and are still having effects today. What most people forget is that the market volatility back in 2001 was primarily the dot com bubble. 9/11 was certainly a black swan event that affected the…